Earth’s global surface temperature has increased over the modern instrumental record.
Long-term global measurements show warming, even though individual years and places vary.
Show me why
Global surface temperature is estimated from land stations and ocean measurements. Scientists compare changes relative to a baseline and account for uneven coverage. A global trend does not require every location to warm at the same rate.
A common misconception
A cold day in one place does not measure the global long-term average.
Where the limits are
Trend estimates depend on interval and dataset. Short-term variation does not determine the multi-decade trend.
How we know
NASA publishes GISTEMP data and methods. IPCC’s 2023 assessment reports that the 2011–2020 global surface average was about 1.1°C above 1850–1900. That is a defined historical comparison, not a claim about this year’s final value.
What would change this conclusion?
Independent reanalysis showing a sustained error large enough to remove the trend would require revision.
Sources you can inspect
- NASA GISSGISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
Public dataset and analysis methods.
Publication date not stated · Checked in initial research 2026-10-08 - IPCCClimate Change 2023: Summary for Policymakers
Assesses the long-term change.
2023 · Checked in initial research 2026-10-08
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